Coffee Plunges on Projections for Favorable Rain in Brazil

On Monday, coffee prices were battered by rain forecasts in Brazil, which eased drought issues and marked the long liquidation of the grain’s futures.

In the Asian afternoon session, US coffee futures for December contracts dipped by -4.08% to $2.46 per pound. London robusta futures for November delivery plummeted by -2.87% to $4,901.00 per metric ton.

A weather forecaster firm revealed that notable rainfalls are anticipated this week into next for Brazil’s coffee-growing countries, which could boost moisture and crop conditions.

The commodity’s price decline has accelerated after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that global crop exports surged by 6.50% annually in August to 10.92 million bags. Global shipments increased by 9.90% yearly to 125.67 million bags in October and August.

Furthermore, Arabica inventories recovered, climbing to a 1 1/2-year high of 858,474 bags, better than the 24-year low of 234,066 bags in November last year.

On the other hand, robusta coffee stockpiles rose to a one-year high of 6,521 lots in July compared to the record low of 1,958 lots posted last February.

According to reports, Conab, Moscow’s crop agency, has reduced its 2024 coffee output forecast to 54.80 million bags, compared to the previous data of 58.8 million bags.

ICO Reports Global Green Coffee Exports Rise

According to ICO, global shipments of green, unroasted coffee surged by 8.80% in August, better than last year, boosting the sum by 10.50% for the first 11 months of the 2023/24 season.

The agency revealed that robusta was the main driver of export growth in August, with delivery climbing by 14.30% after increases from Brazil, India, and Indonesia.

However, Vietnam eased by -12.10% that month, marking a seventh consecutive plunge and leaving the cumulative decline for the first 11 months of the current season.

The ICO reported that the recent decline, particularly in Hanoi, is attributed to a limited domestic supply. This is due to the anticipation of new supply from the 2024/25 harvest, which is still a month away from beginning.

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