On Tuesday, coffee prices rose due to worries that unfavorable weather conditions in key producers would result in smaller output.
US crop futures for December delivery increased by 5.00% to $263.30 per pound. London robusta coffee futures for November contracts surged by 3.87% to $5,259.00 per metric ton.
According to reports, Brazil has been experiencing the driest weather since 1981. Furthermore, Brasilia has persistently been below rainfall average since April, disrupting coffee trees during their flowering stage and reducing outlooks for the 2025/26 arabica crop.
A positive factor for coffee prices was Conab, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency’s decision last Thursday. It reduced this year’s coffee production forecast to 54.80 million bags, down from 58.80 million bags projected in May.
Meanwhile, concerns about extreme dryness in Vietnam support robusta prices, as it could harm coffee crops and reduce future global production of robusta beans.
Sources also noted that Hanoi’s coffee production for the 2023/24 crop year fell by -20.00% to 1.47 million metric tons. This marks the smallest harvest in four years, primarily attributed to drought conditions.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service has forecasted a slight decrease in Vietnam’s Robusta coffee production for the 2024/25 marketing year. Production is expected to fall to 27.90 million bags, compared to 28.00 million bags in the 2023/24 season.
Brazil Coffee Farmers Grapple with Worst Drought: Almeida
Silvio Almeida revealed that he and other Brazilian coffee farmers have struggled with the country’s above-average temperatures and the worst drought in over 70 years.
Almedia anticipated to harvest 120 sacks of coffee beans this season but only managed to gather 100 sacks from his hillside plantation in Brazil.
The former Minister of Human Rights and Citizenship said the recent weather has already affected next year’s crop.
Meanwhile, analysts noted that the market closely monitors how Brazilian coffee plants cope with adverse climate conditions. These dry conditions can prevent flowers from blooming, hinder their development into cherries, or produce lower-quality beans.
