Currently, the UK Pound is remaining stable against the euro. In the short term, it appears that this pattern will hold. The EUR to GBP rate has stuck around 0.86 points in recent months. Therefore, 1000 EUR to GBP would be 862.72 as it currently stands. In July especially, some higher lows have been pushing the pair’s value up marginally.
At this point, there is a need to keep a close eye on UK economic data to determine future moves.
Despite the turmoil in the UK in the past few years, developments in the very short term look have been good, increasing the chance for a future positive EUR GBP rate. June has had very positive signals, with a growing economy. Furthermore, the indicators show industrial and manufacturing centres enjoying some growth. June had a 0.5% growth as well. In the slightly longer term, the GDP has expanded by 0.4% in Q2. This may not seem particularly impressive, but the forecasts indicated a 0.2% growth in this period.
Rising Unemployment but Thriving Wages Impacting EUR to GBP Exchange Rate
There are expected economic indicators as of this week. This includes upcoming inflation and job data report releases. With jobs, there is more uncertainty. The job market has been competitive, but unemployment has been incrementally rising. After an impressive low of 3.5% unemployment in August 2022, the rate has been inching up to 4%. Forecasts expect this 4% to remain the same, judging by the data from June. Fortunately, wages appear to be thriving, with as much as a 6.9% rise in average weekly earnings this last May (with the inclusion of bonuses). So, there is some hope for movement in the EUR GBP exchange rate in the pound’s favour.
As for the inflation report, this will be more important to keep an eye on. Supposedly, inflation rates should drop rapidly, according to current estimates. This is mainly because of the price caps on energy put in place from the start of July by Ofcom. This should keep spending on energy in control. As it currently stands, inflation has been at 7.9%, and analysts see it dropping to 6.7% soon. It will be important to keep track of inflation in several sectors to estimate what the overall inflation will end up being.
Keeping an eye on the UK data will inform us of oncoming EUR to GBP rates.
