Despite Kremlin’s denial, investors remain skeptical on the current health situation of President Vladimir Putin. Reports emerged on Friday, November 06, that the Russian president who served the highest post in Russia for a total of 16 years will be resigning due to his Parkinson’s disease. This news is untimely as Russia’s economy faces the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. The country’s Markit Services PMI dropped to 46.9 points from 53.7 points in October. This suggests a contraction in Russia’s services sector. In addition to this, the Russian government continues to refrain from intervening on its currency, which could spell trouble for the ruble in the coming sessions. The figure for the month of November was -$50.1 billion. On the political side, the win of former VP Joe Biden could lead to further investigations on Russia’s 2016 intervention in the 2016 US Presidential Election and might lead to an economic sanction.
Switzerland refuses to close its borders amidst the rising cases of COVID-19 in the region. Currently, there are 212,000 cases in the country with the highest daily infection recorded on November 03 at 21,842 or about 10% of the total cases in Switzerland. This, in turn, will result in a surge in the Swiss franc against the US dollar as the Swiss currency will become the investor’s safe haven during the second wave of the coronavirus. On the other hand, the US dollar will see its value fall in the coming sessions as hope for higher stimulus became more apparent with the win of Joe Biden in the election. The president-elect’s ally in the House of Representative proposes $2.2 trillion in a new stimulus package against the Trump administration’s $1.9 trillion negotiation. Biden also promised to rejoin the Paris accord and make renewable energy a priority once he starts to serve as the president of the US. A decline in the crude oil prices will send the US dollar lower.
The US Futures are up. S&P 500 Futures is trading at 3,553.00 or 1.49% higher than last Friday’s closing price. Nasdaq 100 Futures gained the most in today’s trading session by 249.75 points or 2.07%. Meanwhile, the Dow 30 Futures post the lowest daily gain at 1.30% to 28,570.00. These movements suggest optimism by investors on the US stocks. This also means that the safe haven appeal of the US dollar is not working despite the overall uncertainty in the US economy and the election result. In addition to this, Biden promised more stimulus to help individuals and businesses cope up with the pandemic. $2.2 trillion was the original proposal for the new stimulus. However, this figure could potentially go up once Biden officially becomes the US President. On the other hand, Czechia’s central bank holds into its current benchmark interest rate of 0.25% with expectations of three (3) hikes by 2021 up to a total of 150 basis points.
The EU’s largest economy entered a “light” lockdown following the recent surge of COVID-19 cases in the country. Schools remain open but restaurants and other entertainment facilities will be prohibited during the four (4) weeks lockdown. This is expected to shrug off any recoveries that Germany made on its recent reports. The single currency prevented a steep decline with the resurgence of coronavirus in the region with the strong Germany imports, exports, and trade balance reports. In today’s reports, November 09, imports declined by -0.1% from 5.8% while exports posted better-than-expected result of 2.3% against 2.0% expectations. Switzerland, on the other hand, refuses to put the country in another lockdown. This was despite the country having one of the highest infection rates in the region. Investors should also keep their eye with the recent developments in Brexit negotiations. The UK is set to officially leave the bloc on January 01, 2021.
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