The uncertainty in the US election and the disappointing initial jobless claims report will send the USDJPY pair lower in the coming days. On Thursday, October 08, the US added 840K claimants for unemployment benefits. This was higher than the initial expectations of 820K while it was slightly lower than the 849K figure from the prior week. Analysts are worried that the continued increase in unemployment claims could trigger a massive stimulus package. Currently, the House of Representatives has passed a $2.2 trillion stimulus bill. Collectively, the US government and the Federal Reserve injected $6 trillion in stimulus to the local economy. On the other hand, Japan continues to surprise investors with its relatively strong reports. Household spending increased by 1.7% for the month of August while its current account was on its 5-month high at $1.65trillion. These increases contradicted the decline in overall wage income by employees of -1.3%.
Investor’s confidence in the New Zealand economy was renewed following it successfully contained the coronavirus twice. Aside from this, both prime minister candidates – Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins – laid out their plans to restart the NZ economy. On Wednesday’s report, October 07, business confidence made a massive advance for the second consecutive month. The figure went down from -28.5% in September to -14.5% in the second half of October. Meanwhile, investors are worried that Canada might follow the US’ employment stagnation. For the reported week, the US reported a difference on merely 9K for its unemployment benefit claimants. In Canada, the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 9.7% in today’s report. Meanwhile, unemployment change for September is expected to reach 156.6K. Currently, a third of employees who became jobless during the pandemic weren’t able to find a new one yet.
Both the United Kingdom and the United States faced this week with a disappointing projection or results for certain reports. As for the US, its initial jobless claims remain stagnant at 800K. The actual figure came in at $840K, just 9K lower from its previous week’s record. Analysts are expecting for the report next week to suffer the same fate. This was US President Donald declined to negotiate on the proposed $2.2 trillion additional stimulus passed by the US House of Representative. In total, the US government and the US central bank injected $6 trillion in the local economy. On the other hand, the United Kingdom will have several reports today, October 08. Among these reports was the anticipated decline in trade balance of $9.00 billion for the month of August. Meanwhile, the country’s Industrial Production MoM result is expected to grow only 50% of its July report. Despite this, investors will increase their holdings of the British pound.
The strong import, export, and trade balance results from Germany are pushing the euro currency higher. Imports grew by 5.8% from 1.1% in the prior month. Meanwhile, exports experienced a slow down after it grew by 2.4% for the month of August. For July’s result, the figure was 4.7%. Despite the massive decline in exports, however, the trade balance report was still high at $15.7 billion. While Germany has been focusing on its economy, Canada is trying to bring its unemployment lower. In today’s report, expectations for the unemployment rate was 9.7%. If the actual figure posted the same number, this will be the country’s first below 10% unemployment rate since May 2020. However, investors are worried that the unemployment rate might take some time to go back to its previous level as Canada’s employment change continues its massive decline. Analysts are expecting an unemployment change for today’s report at 156.6K.