The U.S. Dollar Is at 3-Week Lows

On Tuesday, the dollar was trading at three-week lows versus a basket of currencies, as investors awaited U.S. jobs data later this week for hints on stimulus reduction timing.

After Jerome Powell stated that the dollar has been under pressure at the Jackson Hole conference on Friday, the U.S. central bank might reduce its bond-buying program this year.

 But did not provide a precise schedule. Analysts expect the U.S. payrolls data due this Friday to follow. Powell made it clear on Friday that the Fed believes the substantial further progress’ condition for inflation but not for employment reached. Hence, the jobs data will continue to be critical for policy expectations, MUFG analysts wrote in a note.

Traders predict that activity on Tuesday drives by month-end flows from firms for their import and export operations. The dip in non-manufacturing PMI shows the coronavirus’s impact. However, infections in China have already peaked and are declining, according to Ei Kaku, a senior strategist at Nomura Securities.

Bitcoin increased by 1.6 percent to $47,752, recouping some of the previous day’s losses.

Currency

The dollar index fell a quarter-percentage point to 92.456, its lowest level since August 6.

The euro rose 0.3 percent against the generally weaker dollar, reaching a three-week high of $1.18315.

Sterling rose to a two-week high of $1.38010 before resuming its decline below $1.38.

The yen was barely changed against the dollar, trading at 109.85 yen to the dollar.

The New Zealand currency rose 0.9 percent to $0.70560 a day after Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern loosened lockdown limits outside of Auckland.

The offshore Chinese yuan fell against the dollar but remained relatively stable following weak factory and service sector surveys.

Euro Outlook

The Fibonacci level of 61.8 considers being the resistance level. The euro may fall below this level. If that happens, it could fall to 1.1750–1.1700.

Because of the price rebound from the Fibonacci level, technical analysis indicates a sell signal on the short-term chart. During the correcting phase, there is a long signal on the intraday chart. Because of the negative cycle that began in early June, the medium-term chart indicates short indications. By the conclusion of last week, the euro had unexpectedly risen. Of course, Jerome Powell’s statement at the Jackson Hole Symposium aided its expansion.