New China economic growth data for the last quarter should be coming out soon. The government is pursuing a goal of around 5.0% for the year. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect a 4.4% growth in third-quarter GDP. This suggests that China is likely to reach its 5.0% target. This is after its previous year-on-year GDP growth of 4.5% at the start of the year and 6.3% in the second quarter. While this is one of China’s lowest goals in decades, the government has been carrying out financial stability measures in the banking and housing sectors and supporting stocks and the yuan. Numerous Chinese-listed companies have also announced share buyback plans in response to official efforts to boost the struggling stock market.
China’s failure to achieve a rebound after the pandemic has led to reduced GDP growth projections for the next year. There are estimates of around 4.5% right now. The confidence of consumers and businesses remains weak. Demand for products from China is uncertain, especially due to geopolitical tensions. It is hard to know how emerging markets in China will act.
Several key aspects to watch in the coming release of economic data include:
- Consumer Spending Trends: Retail sales showed signs of improvement in August. However, concerns persist due to property market issues affecting consumer confidence.
- Property Market: Despite efforts to stabilise the property market, property investment has lowered in the first eight months of the year, and concerns exist about potential debt crises in the sector.
- Export Outlook: International demand for Chinese exports has lowered, influencing the economy.
- Fixed Asset Investment: While there has been growth in fixed asset investment, questions arise about its productivity and whether it’s simply shifting non-productive investments from one sector to another.
- Calls for Stimulus and Reforms: Calls for stimulating domestic consumption and implementing economic reforms are becoming more prominent as China’s growth slows. The government is expected to make adjustments, but major actions may not be imminent.
In summary, China is working to meet its annual GDP growth target, facing challenges in multiple economic sectors. Despite stabilisation efforts, the country continues to grapple with weak consumer and business confidence. There are also changing international dynamics leading to the China crisis. This raises questions about the sustainability of its growth model.