At A Glance:
- Historical Growth: Since the 1960s, Berkshire Hathaway’s Class A shares have surged by 4,900,000%, significantly outperforming the returns of the S&P 500.
- Buffett’s Market Caution: Amid high market valuations, Berkshire net sold $56.09 billion in equity since October 2022, signalling potential market downturns.
- Strategic Cash Reserves: With $189 billion in cash, Berkshire is well-prepared to exploit investment opportunities during market crises.
Back in 1973, Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha himself, hosted the first Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in a humble cafeteria of a subsidiary, drawing just a few dozen faithful investors. Fast forward to 2024, and this financial pilgrimage has grown into a grand affair, with over 40,000 attendees flocking to Omaha, Nebraska, eager to hear Buffett’s sage wisdom and quips about the stock market, the U.S. economy, and investing. The evolution of this meeting reflects Berkshire Hathaway’s growth and the gravitational pull of Buffett’s investing prowess.
Berkshire’s Long-Term Performance: Nearly 5,000,000% Returns
Buffett’s magic is more than just anecdotal. Since the mid-1960s, Berkshire Hathaway’s Class A shares have returned a staggering 4,900,000%, nearly doubling up the annualised total return of the S&P 500, including dividends. This level of success is not just impressive but downright legendary. The 2024 meeting showcased this stellar performance while highlighting how Buffett and his trusted sidekick, Charlie Munger, have remained firmly committed to their investment philosophy: finding wonderful businesses at fair prices.
Operating Results in Q1 2024: Net Equity Sales of -$17.281 Billion
In Q1 2024, Berkshire’s equity purchases stood at $2.691 billion, but equity sales reached a whopping $19.972 billion, resulting in a net activity of -$17.281 billion. This trend is not new. The past few quarters have shown consistent net sales:
- Q4 2023: $0.525 billion
- Q3 2023: $5.253 billion
- Q2 2023: $7.981 billion
- Q1 2023: $10.41 billion
- Q4 2022: $14.64 billion
Since October 2022, Berkshire Hathaway has net sold $56.09 billion in equity, which many analysts interpret as Buffett’s silent warning about potential trouble brewing on Wall Street.
Buffett Warns of Market Valuations and “Casino-like Behaviors”
Buffett’s cautious stance is not unfounded. The Shiller P/E ratio, a measure of market valuation, currently sits at 34.05, more than double its historical average of 17.11. This is the third-highest reading in a bull market in over 150 years. Historically, when the ratio exceeded 30, major indices like the S&P 500 or Dow Jones suffered losses between 20% and 89%.
In his Annual Letter, Buffett commented, “Despite the substantial growth of the stock market compared to our initial years, today’s active investors are no more emotionally composed or better educated than during my school days. For various reasons, markets currently display behaviors much more reminiscent of a casino than in my youth. This casino now exists in numerous homes, constantly enticing the residents.”
Strategic Cash Pile: Berkshire Hathaway’s $189 Billion War Chest
Despite reducing equity exposure, Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a cash pile of $189 billion as of March 31, 2024, and is projected to reach $200 billion by the quarter’s end. This treasure trove serves as a strategic war chest, enabling the company to pounce on lucrative opportunities like the preferred stock acquisition of $5 billion in Bank of America during the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis.
The Utility of Cash in Action
- Preferred Stock Yield: 5%
- Warrants: 700 million shares at an exercise price of $7.14
These smart moves illustrate Berkshire’s ability to capitalise on crises while maintaining an impressive gross margin of 20.12%. Buffett’s empire is ready to weather economic storms with a market cap of $876 billion and a ticker symbol as well-known as BRK.B.
Buffett’s Investment Philosophy: Patience and Economic Cycles
Buffett’s investment philosophy emphasises patience and the understanding that economic expansions last disproportionately longer than downturns. In the post-WWII era, recessions have never lasted longer than 18 months, while two economic expansions lasted for over a decade.
Strategy and Patience
- Message: Periods of growth last disproportionately longer than downturns
- Cyclical Investments: Benefit from long periods of growth in the U.S. and global economy
- Patience: A winning formula for Berkshire shareholders
This approach of investing in “wonderful businesses at fair prices” and holding onto them through thick and thin has rewarded Berkshire shareholders handsomely, instilling confidence in Buffett’s winning formula.
Stock Advice Beyond Berkshire Hathaway: Analysts Weigh In
The Motley Fool analyst team quickly acknowledges Buffett’s brilliance and recommends looking beyond Berkshire Hathaway. They advocate diversifying into other promising stocks, noting their successful recommendation of Nvidia in 2005. An initial investment of $1,000 back then is now worth $564,547—a testament to the power of strategic stock picking.
Motley Fool Success Story
- Company: Nvidia
- Recommendation Date: April 15, 2005
- Initial Investment: $1,000
- Current Value: $564,547
Warren Buffett’s message for the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting was clear: the road ahead is bumpy, but long-term investors with patience and a discerning eye for value will continue to prosper.
